Cyber incidents are playing a central role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Here’s how events are unfolding along with unanswered questions.

It’s been almost six weeks since Russian troops entered Ukraine and the large-scale “cyberwar” expected to accompany the invasion has not yet materialized. Observers and experts have offered many theories about why Russia hasn’t launched a destructive cyberattack on Ukraine yet despite its full capability to do so.

The reasons range from Russia saving its most dangerous cyberattack until the bitter end to the Kremlin’s fear of a devastating Western response. The most intriguing explanation for why Russia hasn’t seemingly unleashed its cyber arsenal is because we’re already in the middle of what Thomas Rid, professor of strategic studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, calls a secret cyberwar.

The digital cyberwar is playing out in the shadows, Rid argues, with the more apparent cyberattacks taking place to divert attention from the incidents that we’re not supposed to see. Cyberwar has been playing tricks on us, he argues, emerging in the form of seemingly random attacks and then slipping away into the future.

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